Import Trends in Early 2025
Despite a decline in the consumption of coal by Thailand, Indonesia is still the number 1 supplier of coal to the country. Between January and April 2025, Indonesia’s thermal coal exports dropped about 12% year-on-year, reaching 150 million tons, with Thailand among several Southeast Asian buyers reducing imports compared to the same period last year.
The slump in exports is tied to diminished demand from major Asian economies, including Thailand
Regional Price & Demand Dynamics
CIF prices for Indonesian 4,200 kcal/kg GAR coal to Thailand averaged $54.80/ton during Jan–May 2025, down from $66.05/ton the previous year.
Lower prices are making coal more competitive, yet overall demand remains subdued due to increased use of cleaner energy and weaker industrial activity
Forecast for Full-Year 2025
Projections indicate no rebound, with Indonesian coal exports to Thailand expected to grow just ~2.4% in 2025 from a 2024 baseline of ~$1.069 billion. However, if export volumes remain depressed, actual trade may fall short of these estimates.
✅ Summary Snapshot
| Metric | Jan–Apr 2025 vs. 2024 |
|---|---|
| Indonesia coal exports overall | –12% (150 Mt shipped) |
| Thai imports of Indonesian coal | Decline alongside regional peers |
| Price FOB Ko Sichang | ~$54.80/t (–17%) |
Despite forecasts of slight gains, actual full-year numbers may decline if current trends persist.
Thailand is importing less Indonesian coal in 2025 so far, driven by regional demand shifts and growing clean-energy adoption.
Prices are down—coal is cheap—but demand remains weak.
